The Current Uke Market: An honest and open-minded discussion.

Greetings fellow UU members.

I would like an honest and real discussion on this topic from a buyer and seller point of view.
I would also like some perspective from UU members who have seen fluctuations in the market before or are aware of the trends in the current market.

Here are my questions to stimulate discussion:

1. Is the market getting softer?

2. Has the increase in custom builders thinned out the mid and high end market?

3. Does this “Everybody In” mentality mean the bubble is about to burst? (Think of how many uke companies/builders are out there right now)

4. Since the dawn of the Uke Renaissance in the late 90’s are we finally seeing a plateauing and the market is responding?

I look forward to any honest and open-minded discussions about this topic.

Cheers!
J =)

In the past 4 months, I have personally purchased 9 ukes, traded a couple, sold a couple ... so if the market is softening, I'm not contributing to that condition

In the last year I've purchased and sold 18 ukes and u-basses, 5 are custom. I'm down to 6 ukes, with 2 for sale, and 4 basses (one is not playable for now). In the near future I'm planning to order 2 more custom basses, no ukes. I'm also a member of a seniors uke group and new members join every couple of weeks, we're up to about 65 active members, 97 on the roster.

I've been hearing "the market is crashing, the bubble has burst" since I started playing... six years ago. My thinking is that it ebbs and flows, and that just as soon as one starts thinking the bottom has dropped out, signs of "the boom" come back.

I'm probably going to be listing a K-brand uke or two in the upcoming days, so I may well have some actual basis for comparison to my previous sales. Stay tuned.

I'm a data-oriented guy. US sales nearly doubled from 2010-2012 (581K to almost 1.1MM). 2013 saw a 9% reduction to just under 1.0M units. Sales were still greater than 2011. It will be interesting to see where 2014 ends up.


I've only been in the uke world for about 18 months, but in that time I have bought and sold over 20 ukes. So my experience is entirely concentrated in the near past. The following generalizations are based on my own buying/selling and spending more hours than I care to admit scouring the online market:

A. Used ukes in the under $800 seem to move more quickly than those over $1,000

B. New ukes in the $800-$1,200 price range are getting extremely good, which does affect the re-sale market for more expensive ukes

C. The greater number of quality used ukes is probably having an affect on the new market

D. Used ukes need to provide some motivating factor over new, whether it be price (e.g., save $300 or xx% over new), time (e.g., buyer has a long wait list) or uniqueness (buyer no longer builds, it's unique, etc.)

E. I do think that the vintage market, in particular, has softened. I've watched prices on Martin's drop noticeably. Does it have something to do with their re-starting production? And/or the availability of excellent reproductions (e.g., Timms, Kiwaya, etc.)? I presume both of these have been a factor.

F. A brand's popularity can change in a moment, for better or for worse. When I first started, Collings was highly coveted (I believe they had stopped production for a period of time) and sold very quickly. Of late, they seem to be less sought after by many (and more broadly available with production having re-started). No problem for me. I got a very nice deal on a few month old used UC3M, a uke I don't think I would ever sell. ;-)

As with most "economics" there are a number of things at play. An increase in custom builders, increase in quality in low/mid price ranges, significant increase in quality in the mid and mid-high price ranges, the waning of a boom, etc.

However, one thing I'm not really seeing are many "firesale" prices or absolute deals. If people are off the bandwagon, they aren't dumping their ukuleles as far as I've seen. And the bulk of ukuleles on ebay (at least the ones I'm watching) and the ones here in the marketplace seem to sell for reasonable prices with reasonable amounts of activity.

If I had to pick one, I would say that the increase in quality in the mid and mid-high price ranges might have the biggest effect. People can get so much more in that price range that it may delay or stop the "up the ladder" UAS that so many of us go through. But, this may just be speculation. Do we think the average used prices of Koaloha concerts have been affected by the availability of the Koaloha Opio concerts Or Kala/Ohana/Pono's solid body $300-400 ukuleles?

So much of this is personal opinion and can suffer from a lot of biases (confirmation bias, clustering illusion, etc). So without a lot of data, we're just guessing.

{EDIT: And posting at the same time, there's Eddie with some data!}

kohanmike said:

In the last year I've purchased and sold 18 ukes and u-basses, 5 are custom. I'm down to 6 ukes, with 2 for sale, and 4 basses (one is not playable for now). In the near future I'm planning to order 2 more custom basses, no ukes. I'm also a member of a seniors uke group and new members join every couple of weeks, we're up to about 65 active members, 97 on the roster.

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I agree with Mike.
I too run a group meeting twice a month, we get new members every meeting. We average 35 folks at our gathering with about 125 on my e-mail list. My classes are usually full as well. I also travel to many festivals where I see big attendance. All the other clubs I attend are doing well too.
So maybe sales are softening, but playing appears to be up. This in my opinion is what will keep the "movement" alive.

I have been buying,selling and making ukes since the mid 90's when the market started to come alive. Forums like this and others did not exist yet and the main avenue for ukes and other vintage string instruments was the beginning of eBay. Ebay offered the seller, buyer and luthier an avenue that could not have existed. I originally started selling all my new ukes on eBay and the response was very very good. Until the mid 2000's, that market continued to thrive. Forums were now taking hold and the market started to shift to these forums and other web sites as ukes became available on-line. From here I will direct my obeservations under the questions you have posted.

Here are my questions to stimulate discussion:

1. Is the market getting softer?

The market as I have observred it has gone up and down several times, it has especially changed on eBay as many stores started selling instruments on eBay. New stores started selling imports by the thousands and the prices started to drop as the market became flooded with cheap ukes. The stores that were selling well up until that point, now introduced a cheaper line of ukes under their own brands to compete. The older vintage ukes were still selling OK but that market slowing started going away as collectors got what they wanted and the market softened.

2. Has the increase in custom builders thinned out the mid and high end market?

Those builders who participate in the uke market can go in many directions, each to their own needs. Indeed some builders only build for the high end market, some for more the mid-high, and some for the lower end. Each market has its own problems. One of those problems is the glut of instruments on the market. As a luthier, I have to compete with everything out there. If a new member of the uke community wants a uke, for the most part they are not going to look at the builders unless they have the means, which is a small percentage of the buyers. Many a time I have heard from buyer, "Why should I buy a more expensive uke when I can get an import that looks just as good and cost way less". Of course the new buyer doesn't have the knowledge as to why a hand-made uke cost more than an import, after all, they may look the same and they can't really hear much of a difference. That takes time to understand.

Also, ukes are now in almost all music stores across the world, where they weren't before. Builders can't compete with that kind of quantity, and so cheaper ukes are sold because they are in the stores.

3. Does this “Everybody In” mentality mean the bubble is about to burst? (Think of how many uke companies/builders are out there right now)

Only time will tell what will happen. If so and so such a movie star started playing uke in the next supper hit movie, the bubble will grow. Its a here today gone tomorrow thing. No one really knows.

4. Since the dawn of the Uke Renaissance in the late 90’s are we finally seeing a plateauing and the market is responding?

See the above. I still manage to sell everything I make, but I get less money now and it takes longer to make the sale. I'm just trying to ride this train until I decide when to get off, I think the market will stay alive that long at least. Thanks for asking these questions.

I look forward to any honest and open-minded discussions about this topic.

Cheers!
J =)[/QUOTE]

Since i'm not a store, I don't really care.
When I buy a uke, I don't really think how much can I sell this for.
I think... how much enjoyment am I going to get out of it.

If I decide to sell a uke, and it doesn't sell, and if I've done my homework on that uke, then at worst I keep a good uke and continue to play it occasionally.
If I try to sell a bad uke (I'd give it away first honestly), and it doesn't sell.. well.. that's on me for buying a bad uke in the first place, and kinda bad on me for trying to sell a bad uke (which is why i'd give it away first.. cuz I believe in Karma).

Ukulele Eddie said:

When I first started, Collings was highly coveted (I believe they had stopped production for a period of time) and sold very quickly. Of late, they seem to be less sought after by many (and more broadly available with production having re-started). No problem for me. I got a very nice deal on a few month old used UC3M, a uke I don't think I would ever sell. ;-)

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Collings also raised their uke prices by >30%. I thought that jump was extreme.

The NAMM data is very enlightening. While US retail sales numbers are a smidgeon lower in the last reporting year, it is important to remember that the numbers are only "new, retail" as reported by NAMM members. Also, ukuleles are only 4% of the total fretted instrument market (unless I read the data wrong), and the overall fretted instrument numbers are up. As far as popularity goes, acoustic guitars outsell ukuleles almost 9:1 and electric guitar:ukulele ratio is almost 7:1.

NAMM also noted that the used market is vibrant, especially on Craigslist and EBay.

I agree with others who have said, by their personal actions, there is no downward trend. My buying habits though show about split on new:used instruments the past couple years.

What it all proves is......who knows? Quality instruments have an expected (and probably proven) longer life. However, while costs have been stable in many cases on mass-produced stock, the overall quality (thanks to discriminating consumers) has gone up....leading to longer instrument life and more instruments entering the used/resale market. That does not make retailers jump for joy,

The stats which would interest me would be the total number of instruments in active use (new and used) by year. Is that number on the rise or trending downward?

One very interesting stat in the NAMM data is that the sale of strings for all fretted instruments dipped slightly. Am not sure that string quality has increased appreciably, so what that data shows is arguable.

BlackbearUkes, This was an excellent post.

It's always interesting to hear from someone who's been in the business for a long time. The number of custom builders entering the market is an interesting phenomenon. I would assume that there is a very small market share for custom made ukes as you said. It seems from a business standpoint that the market place for expensive ukes could become over saturated pretty quickly. I think that the ukulele builders who have been doing this the longest will be okay. I've also noticed that many guitar builders are offering to build ukes.

It also seems that the K brands are not going as quickly. Perhaps, now the uke to own, at least in people's perceptions is a custom. There is a type of group think that happens when people gather. Before the custom builder fade came in, the main uke that people aspired to was a K brand. The only thing that has changed is the perception. A k brand may sound better than many of the custom builders. After all, the K brands have made thousands of ukes and learned from their mistakes. As with anything in life, it takes practice to perfect something. How many ukes have the newer custom builders made? This is just something to think about.

Mid priced Ukes:

As someone else mentioned, there are some great quality ukes in the mid price range. It gets hard to justify spending more money when a nice sounding instrument can be purchased in the 350-800 price range. You get a lot for your money in this range.



New Ukulele Players:




I think there are less people picking up the ukulele. I base this on a few observations. If you look at youtube and how many ukulele posts there were several years ago, you can see a majority of the videos occurred several years ago. Also, you no longer see as many articles about Jake or James Hill. We know about them because we're part of the community. Also, if seniors are buying ukes, many are on a limited income and not working. They will purchase the cheaper models. I've noticed in the music stores less ukuleles and more acoustic guitars now.

Closing:

I do not think the ukulele will go away. Most of the buying of the expensive ukuleles is by a small percentage of ukulele players. I'm assuming many of these players have already purchased a custom or having one currently built. Of course, you will still have the multiple ukulele buyer.

Also, it is not a good financial time for many of us. Finances are much tighter than in the past. Many people are no longer mass consumers or can afford it. You can also see that U.S. retail sales are dropping http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales

JustinJ said:

..... Also, if seniors are buying ukes, many are on a limited income and not working. They will purchase the cheaper models.

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Will have to disagree a bit. Seniors, as such, are a growing population numbers-wise. "Limited income" does not necessarily mean destitute, as seniors overall probably have the greatest percentage of disposable income and are the most-marketed because there are so many seniors who have planned there retirement to live comfortably. As a result, seniors/retirees often feel freer to make spontaneous and self-gratifying purchases, and musical instruments fall into that category. Yes, there are seniors/retirees on extremely limited incomes, but there are a lot of folk out there with the belief of "you only live once, and enjoy before time runs out" and are solvent enough to live that dream.

My uke list may predominately be the "cheaper" models, but there have been over twenty in the past three years and that cost is cumulative. I'm an exception to a degree, in that I like taking "sow's ear" instruments and turning them into "silk purse" instruments. There are plenty others who don't tinker and only buy the best.

Since I started playing (around January, 2013), I have purchased 9 ukuleles and have sold none of them. I purchased one for myself, two for my sons, one for my husband, another for myself, another for myself, and a couple for our ukulele club, and have ordered one that should be here in a week or so.

The UBA also has new people coming just about every meeting, but our group is small, around 20 folks. I've helped many of our members shop for and purchase their first ukulele, around 10 folks total.

So, in my little corner of the world, we are just getting started good!

SteveZ said:

Will have to disagree a bit. Seniors, as such, are a growing population numbers-wise. "Limited income" does not necessarily mean destitute, as seniors overall probably have the greatest percentage of disposable income and are the most-marketed because there are so many seniors who have planned there retirement to live comfortably. As a result, seniors/retirees often feel freer to make spontaneous and self-gratifying purchases, and musical instruments fall into that category. Yes, there are seniors/retirees on extremely limited incomes, but there are a lot of folk out there with the belief of "you only live once, and enjoy before time runs out" and are solvent enough to live that dream.

My uke list may predominately be the "cheaper" models, but there have been over twenty in the past three years and that cost is cumulative. I'm an exception to a degree, in that I like taking "sow's ear" instruments and turning them into "silk purse" instruments. There are plenty others who don't tinker and only buy the best.

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I agree with you on this Steve. I can't make a blanket statement on retired people's income sources, but the retired people I know, and there are plenty, have a good deal of disposable income. I happen to be a retired senior myself. I see seniors more likely to buy expensive ukes, than someone with three kids to feed, a car payment and a mortgage. Anyone who shows up at a ukulele festival is going to see a lot of seniors playing a lot of expensive ukes. They have the time, and they have the money.

SteveZ said:

Will have to disagree a bit. Seniors, as such, are a growing population numbers-wise. "Limited income" does not necessarily mean destitute, as seniors overall probably have the greatest percentage of disposable income and are the most-marketed because there are so many seniors who have planned there retirement to live comfortably. As a result, seniors/retirees often feel freer to make spontaneous and self-gratifying purchases, and musical instruments fall into that category. Yes, there are seniors/retirees on extremely limited incomes, but there are a lot of folk out there with the belief of "you only live once, and enjoy before time runs out" and are solvent enough to live that dream.

..... There are plenty others who don't tinker and only buy the best.

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I believe that this is a good analysis of the Baby Boomer demographic's zeitgeist (myself included as I turn 70 this year). Like many, I have learned the meaning of value in a universe of shoddy. My observation from the edge of the world here in Western Australia is that;
a) the number of players joining the groups I play with are increasing.
b) the number of people who step up to better quality instruments are increasing.

I have been fortunate in being able to acquire some very fine instrument over the past year. They have been quite a sensation with the people that I play with as I don't believe that they had the opportunity to play instruments like those before (I always share). From this I have noticed that the quality of instruments now being played by those around me has risen dramatically.

At this point in my life I would not consider even the best mass market instruments concentrating instead on 2nd hand higher end or newly commissioned builds. That will limit the quantity of instruments that I will own at any one time but I would always prefer to have less, or nothing, to ultimately be able to enjoy the benefits of better quality.

hollisdwyer said:

I believe that this is a good analysis of the Baby Boomer demographic's zeitgeist (myself included as I turn 70 this year). Like many, I have learned the meaning of value in a universe of shoddy. My observation from the edge of the world here in Western Australia is that;
a) the number of players joining the groups I play with are increasing.
b) the number of people who step up to better quality instruments are increasing.

I have been fortunate in being able to acquire some very fine instrument over the past year. They have been quite a sensation with the people that I play with as I don't believe that they had the opportunity to play instruments like those before (I always share). From this I have noticed that the quality of instruments now being played by those around me has risen dramatically.

At this point in my life I would not consider even the best mass market instruments concentrating instead on 2nd hand higher end or newly commissioned builds. That will limit the quantity of instruments that I will own at any one time but I would always prefer to have less, or nothing, to ultimately be able to enjoy the benefits of better quality.

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As a musician and teacher, I have to agree with what you say about quality. Once people see, hold, and play the best, they will try and find the best for themselves, if they can possibly afford it. I have done this with my students - I let them play my high-end clarinet or flute and they realize how much more they can do with a really good instrument. It does make a difference. Our ukulele group is mostly mid-level instruments. It will be interesting to see how our folks react to my Clara.

Edited to add, only one or two of our members have stepped up to a better instrument, and that was because what they started out with came out of a closet after decades. I wonder if any of the folks here will be wanting to get into a better instrument after they have played a while.

If this is true that the Babyboomers are purchasing more ukuleles, then what happens after they're gone? Is there any other demographic right now besides babyboomer that ukulele players are increasing? If most people at the ukulele festivals are seniors then this would be a limited group.

There will be a point where there are only so many instrument purchasers. Unless new people start playing then I would assume that the market demand will lessen especially at the more expensive prices.

I'm in my 40s and honestly, most people I know in my age group do not play ukulele. A lot of them play guitar. That was a instrument that was common when I was growing up. I've always liked music, so it was natural for me to pick up the ukulele. I do not see too many young people interested in the ukulele. I'm around many children and I do not know any that play ukulele. I have children and they would rather play the piano or my son who wants to play an electric guitar.

I think for a while there were more young people getting involved with ukulele. It seems to be a passing fad.

With all that said, I love ukulele and it's my favorite instrument to play. So it does not matter if it's popularity lessens. I'll keep playing. Maybe prices will come down to a more reasonable level. I think the market is showing this by less buyers. This could be because people are not willing to spend the money at the current prices or there are less ukulele players.

OP! great questions, very well thought out and excellent answers so far. I have the good privilege of attending three different regularly run uke jams in the Toronto area. Each one of these is growing with two of them in danger of running out of seating space.The province of Ontario is having it's very first uke festival this year so these are all good signs of growth. I really believe that there are enough people into the uke to have hit critical mass where the numbers are secure and or growing. I have been playing for one year and in that time my two brothers in law, my sister and a nephew have all started playing.

I have purchased 12 ukes, sold two so have 10 in house. I have two customs on order and am considering a third. A large number of uke jam members have multiple ukes and seem to be buying up. So in my corner of the world the uke movement seems healthy and growing. Those with 5 years in or more might have a better handle on past and present comparisions. Seems like it is not going to die off anytime soon.

deschutestrout said:

In the past 4 months, I have personally purchased 9 ukes, traded a couple, sold a couple ... so if the market is softening, I'm not contributing to that condition

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me either

However I don't spend much time thinking about this stuff.