Fermi Paradox

The so called Fermi Paradox is neither a paradox nor is it or was it Fermi's.

But given that slight critique of it, has anyone got anything to contribute to the ongoing simmering worldwide debate on the topic?

"Technological civilizations may usually or invariably destroy themselves before or shortly after developing radio or spaceflight technology." Judging by the state of planet Earth, I think this is highly likely to be true.

John Colter

Yes, of the many explanations that is my answer to it.

But in second place I reckon that we do not know how much real estate there is out there. We can see only as far as 13.8 billion light years so we have no concept of anything beyond that. There could be so much universe out there that even if there were a million intelligent and highly technological civilisations they could be so far apart from each other that none could ever contact another or even know that another exists. But that would be spooky because that would hint that it had been specifically created that way. Ruling out God by virtue of being non-existant that would be very spooky indeed with regard to the creation of such a neatly ordered universe with such a wide space between intelligent technological civilisations. Is the whole universe the toy of a multi-billion year old child and might such a child in a fit of pique pour custard over it all?

It occurred to me that development of a civilization to a highly technical level requires a long period (long in human terms) of favourable conditions. It may be that the many thousands of years we have enjoyed, without huge climate change or devastating (on a global scale) natural disasters, might be a rarity.

It would only take a huge meteor strike, a massive volcanic event, or an ice age, to knock us back to a state where we would be in a constant fight for survival.

Our present peak of technical achievement may be an extremely rare occurrance in this volatile, ever changing universe.

John Colter

Let us suppose that there is a technologically advanced civilisation at a distance of 500 light years from Earth and that civilisation is 1,000 years more technologically advanced than us.

Currently that civilisation would not detect any technological proxy for intelligent life on Earth because it would 'see' Earth as it was 500 years ago, light and 'leaking' radio signals from Earth taking 500 years to reach the other lot's instruments.

But we could detect that other civilisation because we would 'see' it as it was 500 years ago, light and 'leaking' radio signals or something in the radio spectrum reaching us from 500 years ago when that civilisation was still 500 years more technologically advanced than we are now.

So the less technologically advanced of two intelligent and technologically advanced civilisations will discover the existence of the other one first.

I recently put this to one of SETI's top people and she concurred.

So we detect the presence of this extra terrestrial civilisation (as it was 500 years ago) and send them a message. Assuming they receive our "hand across space" and respond immediately, we would get their response 1,000 years after we attempted to establish contact - by which time they will be 1,500 years more advanced than they were when they leaked the original evidence of their existence. There can be no prospect of any meaningful communication between us. Such contact would be extremely interesting, but in effect, we are alone.

John Colter.

Quite, they may also no longer exist either when we detect the proxy for their existence (500 years after the fact) or by the time that our message arrives or by the time that we have received their response. Another possibility is that they may have left for better prospects elsewhere, further away from us.

All species arrive at a point in their evolution where ukuleles appear in their midst. UAS, ukulele acquisition syndrome, follows shortly driving the economy to ruin as they turn all resources to the manufacture and distribution of ukulele. This escalates to a mass extension event. In time this syndrome repeats itself. The net affect is that no species is able to develop the means to explore far enough to contact species beyond their own planet. Archeological evidence exists here on earth that a race of large lizard like beings evolved to the point of genetically modifying their bodies to accommodate small ukuleles (very short upper limbs) only to vanish from existence.

This raises the question that perhaps ukuleles are introduced into advanced societies by superior beings as a deterrent.

Who are your favourite lecturers on the subject of the likelihood of intelligent technological life out there and the means of detecting proxies for it?

I like Jill Tarter and Seth Shostak of SETI (Mountain View [main control & office] & Hat Creek [observatory, including Allen Telescope Array]). Jill has a gentle, positively philosophical approach which she delivers near to the end of her interesting lectures. Seth gives the same level of content but is very good at putting in some dry humour every few minutes.

Professor Paul Davies of ASU gives interesting lectures but when he opens it up to questions he will admit that he is less sure than most about the likelihood of ever finding an intelligent technological civilisation out there or there being anything to find.

Professor Richard Dawkins has a peripheral interest in the subject because his subject is evolution.

Borrowed from Nickie - it seems most pertinent.

"The Surest Sign That Intelligent Life Exists Elsewhere In The Universe Is The Fact That It Has Never Tried To Contact Us."

John Colter.

Or to paraphrase:

" So remember when you're feeling very small and insecure
How amazingly unlikely is your birth
And pray that there's intelligent life somewhere up in space
Cause there's bugger-all down here on Earth "

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