Page 3 of 4 FirstFirst 1234 LastLast
Results 21 to 30 of 31

Thread: Playing with a Group - In Person!

  1. #21
    Join Date
    May 2020
    Posts
    728

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by jer View Post
    Since we're doing the math here...
    At the time I'm typing this, on the CDC site they list 31,666,546 confirmed cases in the USA. Deaths are listed at: 566,494.

    Divide that out and you'll see that the death rate is: 0.017889352
    So you have a less than 2% chance of dying from Covid, assuming those numbers are anywhere near correct. My guess is there are actually quite many more cases that are not documented (asymptomatic, etc.), making that percentage go down even farther.

    I've been careful over the past year or so, worn masks, avoided large crowds, etc. etc....but in reality I have a better chance of dying of a lot of other things...Of course no one wants to be in that small percentage....but that's the math and reality of it...not quite as sensational as some make it out to be.
    Stress and worry over getting it will likely end up being more harmful than the actual virus to many. That's just my guess.
    I try not to criticize anyone for being "too careful" or "not being careful enough". It should be a personal decision.
    If you are < 50, your chances of dying is way, way, way less than that even.
    So, I can see why a 20-yr old who never goes near any old person (i.e. prison) aren't all that worried.

    Now, if you are old, then your chances are way, way, way higher. I forget, but I think it is something like 80% death.
    Since there are old people pretty much everywhere, this means even young people should consider the 80% death rate.

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Jul 2014
    Posts
    2,072

    Default

    I think this thread has derailed, but will add anyway:

    It's not just about whether or not you die. I know only one person who has died from COVID. But, I know many, many more who had COVID, all considered "mild" since they didn't require hospitalization, and many of those are "long-haulers", with long-term damage to their lungs or heart, or debilitating fatigue, brain fog, or continued loss of sense of taste, (food tastes disgusting, or can't taste much of anything), and so on. One person I know with damaged lungs seems to worsening, though she tested positive for COVID over a year ago.

    You can also be asymptomatic, but still be spreading COVID. So, you might be fine, but kill off grandma, or a sick child, or at least leave them with long-term damage.

    Math is not a skill I claim, but I think there was a misstating of the death rate. Someone with better math skills can sort that one out. Maybe I just misunderstood how it was stated. That's likely the problem - my reading of it.

    But, either way, the newer strains supposedly are more lethal, so I'm not sure we know what the death rate is currently for the strains that people are likely to get now, rather than when this all began.

    As far as how much risk there is, each individual has to decide how much risk they're willing to take, if they're putting family and others at risk, and what is worth that risk. Some of us are higher risk takers, some of us are lower risk takers, and we all like playing ukulele, though we won't agree on what the best ukulele is, or what strings to use.

    Now, off to check on how those Uke Logic strings are settling in on a uke I put them on yesterday. And, yes, I did consider playing ukulele when deciding which arm should get the vaccination. Important things. :-)

  3. #23
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    Chicago
    Posts
    362

    Default

    Friendly reminder for people who like to calculate odds: Probability is not the same as risk. The formula they teach in risk management class is:

    Risk = Likelihood x Potential Loss

    In other words, the probability that something will happen is only one part of the equation. You also need to consider the consequences if it does happen. If an outcome is very unlikely but also very bad, the risk is high. Dying from Covid-19 is unlikely but I think we can all agree the impact is severe. You'd never buy another ukulele again.

    Then you have to multiply the risk by the number of people impacted. Each person with Covid-19 infects (on average) three other people. They, in turn, infect more people. When you consider all the people who would be endangered if you get sick, and assuming you place any value on their lives, the risk is pretty darn high no matter how low the probability. Mathematics is definitely on the side of caution here.

    I am very eager for vaccinations to lower the risk and allow us all to gather indoors to play and sing. In my location we're not quite there yet, but maybe a month from now.

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Location
    on a sunny FL beach
    Posts
    1,479

    Default

    It seems like we are heading into a irresponsibility vs fearmongering territory. Perhaps we should get back to making music together or apart.

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Apr 2019
    Location
    San Francsico Bay Area
    Posts
    250

    Default

    Speaking of Probabilities....
    On a coin toss, always call TAILS.
    the HEAD side is ever so slightly heavier, thus trending toward it settling downward. Thus TAILS will trend upward.

    Of course, we are talking something like
    50.0001% vs 49.9999, or something like that, still......

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Capital District, New York
    Posts
    3,883

    Default

    And all I could think of, while reading Jerry's post, is that he is only about 60-90 minutes south of me -and it was too damned cold to even think about going outside with a ukulele here!

    But the Altamont Public Library will be having its first Uke get-together on Tuesday May 4th, outdoors in the park next to the library, unless it rains. Bring a chair, a music stand, a sweater, and wear a mask.

    I may being a small battery-powered PA...
    Banjo Ukes: Southern Cross, Firefly, Stella
    Sopranos: Donaldson, Timms, Moku, Waterman, Bugsgear, Outdoor, Waverly Street, Harmony
    Concerts:Cocobolo #460 &#412, Ohana CK450QEL, CK-65D, Rosewood Vita, Mahogany Vita,
    Donaldson Custom, Epi Les Paul, National Triolian Reso, Republic
    Tenors: Kala KA-KTG-CY, KoAloha Sceptre, Fluke, Cordoba 20TM
    Bass: Fluke Timber

    Am I done?

    ...Maybe?...

    My YouTube Channel

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Location
    on a sunny FL beach
    Posts
    1,479

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ksiegel View Post
    And all I could think of, while reading Jerry's post, is that he is only about 60-90 minutes south of me -and it was too damned cold to even think about going outside with a ukulele here!

    But the Altamont Public Library will be having its first Uke get-together on Tuesday May 4th, outdoors in the park next to the library, unless it rains. Bring a chair, a music stand, a sweater, and wear a mask.

    I may being a small battery-powered PA...
    We have been so fortunate here, having great weather and being able to congregate outdoors. With the increase in social distancing, I did find that I need an amp (just a little Vox battery powered) and a mic to help keep us together, so I can sing without yelling.The harmonica player has also amped up.

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Mar 2015
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    927

    Default

    There are a lot of good points being made here to ponder. I appreciate how people have respectfully stated their views. Good on you all.
    For me, Bill1's post stood out in particular.

    So maybe this board should be more of an escape than a continuation of what we're being hammered with from everywhere else, if we allow it. I like the whole turn off the devices and get out and get some fresh air if you can thing.

  9. #29
    Join Date
    Jun 2018
    Location
    Sparta, Wisconsin, USA
    Posts
    3,156

    Default

    It's supposed to be 70 deg F here in Wisconsin tomorrow and Tuesday! (Subject to change every hour without notice.) Hoping to play on a friend's porch either day.

    I hope we all can get out and play with others soon.
    There is a subtle yet profound difference between the learning of something and the knowing of that thing.
    You can learn by reading, but you don't begin to know until you begin to try to do.

    --Lou Churchill, Plane & Pilot Magazine

  10. #30

    Default

    We've been playing outdoors in small groups 4-8 people when restrictions allowed.

    Note: This is not advice!! YMMV. Do your own research and find your own comfort level.


    Only 5% of our uke community are comfortable singing and playing together outdoors during covid

    Our little cluster agreed these rules:
    • Safety is our priority. Respect official guidelines.
    • Each person needs to know their own situation and comfort level
    • Spacing 6' or more.
    • No contact
    • No sharing of things or refreshments
    • Shade from summer sun. Lawn and trees preferred.
    • Convenient washrooms.

    Song circle layout
    • Minimum 12' diameter 36' circumference fits 6 people 6' apart.
    • At first sessions marked player positions with cheap spray paint on grass (on pavement used 6" strip of masking tape)
    • Marks not needed after first sessions.
    • Everyone is cautious. People think 6' is actually 10-12' !!


    Guidelines:
    • National and local Centres for Disease Control
    • Local authority for Workplace Health and Safety
    • National Federation of High Schools (singing and band)
    • College Band Directors National Assn (singing and band)
    • American Choral Directors Assn

    Science:
    Last edited by casualmusic; 04-27-2021 at 11:26 PM.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •